By: Staff Writer
August 4, 2023
The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) said in a recent report that the next three months will be the warmest in the Caribbean’s history and is warning that tropical Pacific and Atlantic ocean temperatures should remain well above average during the next three-month period.
In CariCOF’s most recent newsletter the agency said that the humidity and heatwave frequency will rival the warmest conditions on record (2010, 2016 and 2020).
The newsletter also said: “However, the coinciding unusually warm Pacific and Atlantic have opposing effects on Caribbean rainfall and hurricane season activity. For now, the record-warm Atlantic appears predominant in much of the islands, resulting in limited drought concern, whereas the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards will be high due to copious rains. By contrast, the Guianas will be predominantly drier and hotter from mid-August.”
CariCOF said that for now, the record-warm Atlantic appears predominant in much of the islands, resulting in limited drought concern, whereas the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards will be high due to copious rains.
By contrast, the Guianas will be predominantly drier and hotter from mid-August, it said.
CariCOF said that as of July 1, severe (or worse) short-term drought has developed in Aruba, Bonnaire and Curacao (ABC Islands), Belize, and eastern parts of the Dominican Republic and that long-term drought has developed in St Vincent.
It said at the end of October, short-term drought is evolving in French Guiana, and might possibly develop in northern and central Belize, Guyana, and Tobago.
Long-term drought is evolving central Belize, Dominica and southern French Guiana, and might possibly develop or — at the end of November 2023 — continue in Martinique, St Vincent, and Trinidad and Tobago.
El Niño, a climate pattern that brings warmer sea temperatures to the Pacific Ocean and triggers extreme weather events throughout the world, was already reported for the Caribbean earlier this year and is likely to persist until 2024, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The volatility of the phenomenon complicates any assessment of its net economic effect. With that caveat, and based on current meteorological reports, we expect that El Niño will have a sizeable but uneven economic impact across Latin America and the Caribbean.
The University of the West Indies said in May that: “Over the past three years, the Pacific waters have been cooler than average due to an unusually persistent La Niña. However, La Niña ended in March and the ocean temperatures in the Pacific, both at the surface and a few hundred metres below are warming so quickly that many major atmospheric centres globally are not only warning of emerging El Niño conditions but suggesting it may be a ‘significant’ event. The Caribbean must pay attention.
“El Niño events are also associated with a reduced number of hurricanes due to less than conducive conditions for development caused by stronger upper atmospheric winds. Even if the El Niño does not develop, the end of the La Niña means that climate conditions will change from what the region has experienced over the last three years.
“To compound the issue, the Caribbean Sea is unusually warm for this time of year. This adds to the uncertainty about if and how regional drought and the hurricane season activity will evolve this year as warm seas around the Caribbean ejects more moisture and heat into the atmosphere.
“In addition to contributing to very hot days and nights and more heatwaves, the very warm Caribbean Sea may provide windows of opportunity for a very strong hurricane to develop, notwithstanding El Niño’s dampening effect. For this reason, the region can never let down its guard as it only takes one hurricane or storm to cause immense economic setbacks to an impacted country and sometimes the entire region. Very warm seas also impact coastal marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and seagrass beds, and offshore fisheries may experience disruption of seasonal patterns and uncertain catches. The UWI-CIMH research also shows that the concurrent state of both the Pacific and Atlantic (both warm this year) has a strong impact on how the rainy season will unfold.
“What all this means is that Caribbean governments should keep a close eye on global and regional climatic conditions over the next few months and potentially prepare for very dry and very hot conditions, without ruling out the possibility of intense storms or hurricanes.”