By: Staff Writer
January 16, 2024
The Latin America and Caribbean region dropped to the third lowest fertility rate in the world in just under 100 years, after being as high as the second spot right behind Africa, a new report by Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) details.
ECLAC, in a report from their Demographic Observatory for the LAC, titled, “Population dynamics in Latin America and their effects on the labour force,” said that: “In just 70 years, Latin America and the Caribbean has undergone unprecedented changes. In 1950, the region had the second highest total fertility rate in the world, at 5.8 live births per woman, just below the rate of 6.6 for Africa.
“However, in 2022, the region had the third lowest rate in the world, at 1.8 live births per woman, just above the rates of 1.5 for Europe and 1.6 for North America. Life expectancy at birth has also risen considerably, from 48.6 years in 1950 to 73.8 years in 2022.
“These two factors, together with net migration, have caused a marked shift in the age structure of the population and in the mean age of the population, which stood at 30.6 years in 2022, close to the world average of 30.2 years.”
In the 2000–2010 period, Latin America’s labour force grew by an average of 5.6m people per year. For 2010–2022 the estimated average annual growth was 4.5m people, for 2022–2032 an average of 3.9m people is projected, and for 2040–2050 an average of 1.5m people. In particular, a sharp decline in the growth of the labour force aged under 30 is expected to dampen overall labour force growth between 2022 and 2050.
Although birth rates did not begin to decline at the same time in every country in the region, by 1980 fertility transitions were under way in all of them. Mortality transitions had already begun before 1950. Birth and death rates in 1950 were very varied, both within countries and among them. While differences among countries remain, they are smaller in absolute terms than in the 1950s.
By 2050, there is generally expected to be some convergence of crude birth and death rates among the countries, primarily for Colombia and Costa Rica and some other South American countries and also in Cuba for the Caribbean rates will converge and cross before 2050, meaning that there would be population declines in those countries before that year, based on the assumptions employed for the projections.
The report also said: “Annual population growth in the LAC has changed considerably during the demographic transition, slowing significantly in recent decades. This is reflected in the population sizes of age groups.
“The population estimates and projections indicate that the population aged 0–14 peaked in 2001, while the population aged 15–64 will continue to grow and peak in 2042. The population aged 65 and over is projected to peak in 2086, at 209 million. There is also the rapid growth in the population aged 15–64. That population has undergone a dramatic change, as in less than 40 years it has doubled in size (from 220.2m in 1983 to 442.6m in 2022).