October 15, 2021
A low pressure system formed Wednesday afternoon northeast of the Turks and Caicos, but tropical development will be an uphill battle due to unfavourable environmental conditions in the area, the National Hurricane Centre said.
The system is up against strong upper-level winds that do not support storm development.
It has brought heavy rain to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and the south-eastern Bahamas for roughly two days, but the rain is expected to cease by Wednesday evening.
If any development of the system were to occur, it would be gradual and short-lived, forecasters said.
Experts said the system will likely continue to move northeast Wednesday then speed up and move east Thursday, turning away from the Caribbean islands.
It is expected to interact with a front by week’s end, ending any chance of further development, according to hurricane centre. It has been given a 10% chance of developing within the next five days.
No additional tropical activity is forecast for the next five days, according to the hurricane centre’s outlook.
With roughly six weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through Nov. 30, activity in the tropics could heat up again.
“Sometimes [Florida] is more vulnerable [to tropical storm or hurricane development] in October than any other month,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
This is due largely to the fact that the Atlantic Ocean begins to cool in the fall, but ocean waters around Florida and the Caribbean stay warmer longer. And warm water temperatures support tropical storm development.
Forecasters with the National Hurricane Centre were monitoring a trough of low pressure in the Caribbean for potential storm development on Wednesday. Chances remain low, experts said. (National Hurricane Centre)
“Florida has been hit by about a dozen major hurricanes in the month of October since records began in 1851, which is more than any other state,” according to AccuWeather.
If one more storm or hurricane were to form this season, 2021 would rank third in the record books for the most named storms to develop in one hurricane season. Wanda is the only name remaining on this year’s list of official storm names.
Only twice before, in 2005 and 2020, was the list of storm names entirely used in a hurricane season, according to AccuWeather.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Pamela, which originated in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to take a path across Mexico into Texas. The storm is likely to be a tropical depression by the time it reaches the Lone Star State, but it is forecast to bring widespread downpours and possibly some flooding this week.
Forecasters said as much as 8 inches of rain could deluge central to north-eastern Texas into Friday.