By: Staff Writer
October 30, 2026
The Organisation of American States (OAS) has warned about “very strong” El Niño impact in 2027 in Latin America and the Caribbean in a new report titled, “El Niño 2026–2027: Outlook, Potential Impacts, and Anticipatory Action.”
The report also said that there is a high probability that it will become the most intense on record and that it will persist at least into the first months of 2027.
The report was prepared in collaboration by the OAS Department of Sustainable Development (DSD), in collaboration with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN), urges Member States to strengthen prevention and preparedness during the final months of 2026.
It also said: “The areas with a high probability of water deficit associated with El Niño are north-central and Pacific Mexico, the Central American Dry Corridor, Panama and Costa Rica, the insular Caribbean, Andean and Caribbean Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname and the Amazon and Andean Altiplano regions.
“In these regions the rainfall deficit, combined with rising air temperatures, may trigger severe drought, raising the risk of wildfires and other potential socioeconomic impacts such as urban supply restrictions, a rise in respiratory illness, reduced hydroelectric generation, damage and losses in the agricultural sector and a consequent increase in food insecurity.”
It says the Central American Dry Corridor, the insular Caribbean, the Andean and Caribbean regions of Colombia, Venezuela and the Amazon Basin could face severe rainfall drops and intense droughts.
In contrast, the report says coastal Ecuador, northern Peru, central-southern Chile, and the La Plata Basin — which spans Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — are projected to see surplus precipitation, with high risks of flooding and landslides.
“In the insular Caribbean and coastal regions, acute rainfall deficits are projected to trigger marine intrusion into aquifers, contaminating freshwater supplies and prompting urban rationing,” the report says.
“Drought conditions will also compromise overall water supply and hydroelectric generation, affecting essential services in a region where more than 200 million people lack continuous water service and approximately 50% of the electricity matrix relies on hydropower,” it adds.
Regarding food security, the report projects that rainfall scarcity in the Dry Corridor will push between 500,000 and 750,000 people into Phase 3 (Acute Crisis) of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
The report says the impact will extend to global trade and transport.
“El Niño cannot be avoided, but a large part of its consequences can,” warned Andrés Sánchez, head of the Water Section at the OAS. “In addition to drawing attention to the very strong impact that the scientific community warns El Niño will have in 2027, this document seeks to call on countries to prepare in order to minimize those consequences, providing them with a guiding framework on how to do so.”