By: Staff Writer
September 25, 2026
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in a new report said that an extreme El Niño event could place 4.8 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in poverty.
The Special Report No. 3, titled The Effects of the El Niño Phenomenon in Latin America and the Caribbean and Recommendations for Addressing it, while only in Spanish however the study, led by the Commission’s Executive Secretary, José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, warns of serious economic and social repercussions, as well as for various productive sectors, given the imminence of a high-intensity episode.
“The responses adopted once the emergency is declared are considerably more expensive than the preventive measures based on adequate anticipation. It is imperative to move from a post-response to losses to an anticipatory management of climate risk,” said Salazar-Xirinachs.
El Niño is strengthening and has a 90 percent chance of being a “very strong event” in the northern hemisphere over the upcoming winter, thanks in large part to warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, according to the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The weather caused by ENSO varies across the region; in coastal areas of Peru and Ecuador, typically drier areas will see heavy rains and flooding. But large parts of Colombia, Brazil and the Caribbean can expect to see higher-than-normal temperatures with reduced rainfall.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) projections indicate a more than 90 percent probability that El Niño will reach a very high intensity during the northern hemisphere’s fall and winter 2026-2027 and a 69 percent probability of the phenomenon reaching historic magnitude (“Super El Niño”), with anomalies in ocean surface temperatures greater than +2.5°C or +3.0°C in the Niño 3.4 region.
ECLAC highlights the fact that this phenomenon is occurring in a context in which anthropogenic climate change amplifies natural variability, with an average global temperature of 1.55ºC above preindustrial levels recorded in 2024.
The economic impacts will be deeply heterogeneous and persistent: contraction of real GDP, inflationary pressures, poverty, and critical vulnerability in key sectors, such as energy, fishing, agriculture, and some infrastructures.
According to the report, the region has greater structural vulnerability in the energy sector given that in several countries, hydroelectric generation makes up more than 70 percent of the electric grid, and more than 50 percent of installed capacity is over 30 years old.
By the 2026 October-December trimester, the probability of a precipitation deficit climbs to 60 percent, with 31.1 percent of the regional territory on high alert. High temperatures will cause a sharp increase in electricity demand for climate control in large cities like Lima, Sao Paulo, and Mexico City when less water is available, increasing the risk of power failures and operative cost overruns.