By: Staff Writer
June 9, 2026
Forecasters with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year.
The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Overall, while June is typically a slow month for hurricane activity, the storms that do form can spring up fast and furious in the Caribbean Sea.
Instead of watching tropical waves cross the entire Atlantic Ocean for a week or more, which often happens later in the season, AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said that early-season storms are usually the result of spin developing off of cold fronts moving south, dips in the jet stream moving over warm ocean water, or clusters of showers and thunderstorms that develop, spin and move north from Central America.
Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist with WPLG-TV in Miami, said that only once in the record books has a tropical cyclone formed east of the Caribbean islands in the first few weeks of June (Tropical Depression Two in 2003 that didn’t even survive a full 24 hours), “which means we generally have less time to prepare when early season storms threaten.”
There are competing factors that will influence how active this hurricane season might be.
On the one hand, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be higher than normal – which would typically support a more active year, as hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean waters.
However, balanced against that is the growing chance of a strong El Niño.
This natural climatic event sees the usual flow of east-to-west trade winds across the Pacific slowing down or even reversing, with warm water pooling close to the Americas.
This can drive powerful thunderstorms overhead which can in turn lead to increased vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic – meaning strong winds high in the atmosphere can tear storms apart.
Forecasters have calculated that the El Niño factor is likely to be strong enough to keep hurricane activity below average overall – but there are still big uncertainties.
NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham says “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold.
“It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
Forecasters cite the examples of Hurricane Betsy in 1965 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992, both devastating storms which occurred during below-average seasons.