August 14, 2026
The National Hurricane Center on Thursday kept its eyes on two Caribbean-bound tropical waves that could develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm while the short-live Tropical Storm Cristobal fell apart in the distant Atlantic.
As of 11 a.m., the center of what had diminished to Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristobal less than 24 hours since forming was located 535 miles west-northwest of the Azores with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph heading northeast at 16 mph. That was the last advisory for the degenerated storm.
Still in the developing stages are a pair of tropical waves in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, both now forecast to form into at least a tropical depression.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. tropical outlook, the closer of the two, officially Invest 92, was located about 1,000 miles east of the Caribbean’s Lesser Antilles, although its showers and thunderstorms had become less organized since Thursday morning.
“In addition, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a closed circulation,” forecasters said. “This system is expected to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the development chances appear to be decreasing.”
The NHC noted that gusty winds and heavy rain were possible either way Friday night and Saturday in the Caribbean.
The NHC dropped its forecast from 80% to a 60% chance it would develop in the next two to seven days.
Right behind it, and now Invest 94, is a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gave it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days and 50% in the next seven.
If either system were to grow into a named system, they could become Tropical Storm Dolly.
The active tropics comes on the 22nd anniversary of Hurricane Charley slamming into Florida, the beginning of one of the worst hurricane years in the state’s history.
So far the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has been slow with only three named systems – tropical storms Arthur and Bertha and now Cristobal.
After Dolly, the next name on the list is Edouard.
JUST IN: NOAA’s Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook remains ‘below normal,’ in August update
*U.S. residents need to remain prepared*
Details: https://t.co/kxshxyagwC#HurricaneOutlook @NWS @NWSCPC pic.twitter.com/3N9s8hrz8e
— NOAA (@NOAA) August 6, 2026
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration earier this month updated its seasonal forecast stating it expects between seven and 13 named storms this year. Of those, two to six would become hurricanes. It also predicted that there might not be any major hurricanes this year, or at most two.
Already 2026 was forecast to have lower-than-average storm generation, and that has been reduced even further with the latest forecasts from the NOAA and other weather groups.
An average year would see 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, with three of those growing to Category 3 strength or higher.
The height of hurricane season is just beginning, though, running between mid-August and mid-October.